Home Back to Flight

The most important remaining game right now is Eastern FC vs Meadowlark FC on Wednesday, November 11. Its match score is 130.40, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Meadowlark FC win
60.70 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Wednesday, November 11
Eastern FC vs Meadowlark FC
Meadowlark FC win
41 22 37 130.40 50.20 19.50 60.70
Eastern FC
69.30 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Loco Gunners vs Eastern FC
Loco Gunners win
33 22 45 56.90 32.50 4.80 19.60
Eastern FC
38.70 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Meadowlark FC vs Kendall Wanderers
Kendall Wanderers win
42 22 36 50.80 24.30 1.70 24.80
Meadowlark FC
50.80 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Newburyport FC vs Essex Football Club
Essex Football Club win
63 22 15 20.80 3.80 3.80 13.20
Newburyport FC
20.80 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
CDF Azzurri vs Groton House FC
CDF Azzurri win
53 22 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CDF Azzurri
0.00 total change across the 3 results