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The most important remaining game right now is New England Elite FC vs Sporting Club Malden on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 68.80, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
New England Elite FC win
29.60 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
New England Elite FC vs Sporting Club Malden
New England Elite FC win
39 22 39 68.80 29.60 19.60 19.60
New England Elite FC
68.80 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Marblehead vs Lynnfield FC
Marblehead win
49 22 29 58.40 19.60 19.40 19.40
Marblehead
58.40 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Rebels FC vs Nashua City
Rebels FC win
32 22 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rebels FC
0.00 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Sandy Pond Soccer Club vs Somerville FC
Sandy Pond Soccer Club win
8 22 70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sandy Pond Soccer Club
0.00 total change across the 3 results