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Over 30 Division 3 South Importance

Fall 2026 leverage table for every remaining game in this flight.

The most important remaining game right now is Charlestown InjuryTime FC vs United Africa Boston FC on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 103.00, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
United Africa Boston FC win
46.20 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Charlestown InjuryTime FC vs United Africa Boston FC
United Africa Boston FC win
39 22 39 103.00 28.40 28.40 46.20
United Africa Boston FC
103.00 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Roots FC vs Metrowest United FC
Metrowest United FC win
65 22 13 66.60 8.80 5.80 52.00
Metrowest United FC
66.60 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Old Colony Rovers vs HTK FC
HTK FC win
56 22 22 63.30 17.60 2.40 43.30
HTK FC
63.30 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 15
Harvest Soccer Club vs HTK FC
HTK FC win
59 22 19 59.60 15.00 0.00 44.60
HTK FC
59.60 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Harvest Soccer Club vs Juventus USA
Harvest Soccer Club win
30 22 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Harvest Soccer Club
0.00 total change across the 3 results
6 Saturday, November 14
Juventus USA vs Old Colony Rovers
Juventus USA win
52 22 26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Juventus USA
0.00 total change across the 3 results