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Over 40 Division 1 North Importance

Fall 2026 leverage table for every remaining game in this flight.

The most important remaining game right now is P.A.C. Lowell vs Seacoast United SC on Saturday, November 07. Its match score is 130.60, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Seacoast United SC win
66.40 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Saturday, November 07
P.A.C. Lowell vs Seacoast United SC
Seacoast United SC win
43 22 35 130.60 39.60 24.60 66.40
P.A.C. Lowell
65.30 total change across the 3 results
2 Thursday, November 12
Winchester Safira Footballers vs P.A.C. Lowell
P.A.C. Lowell win
61 22 17 107.70 24.60 14.20 68.90
Winchester Safira Footballers
75.40 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Concord United Masters vs P.A.C. Lowell
P.A.C. Lowell win
53 22 25 89.70 28.40 25.40 35.90
Concord United Masters
55.60 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Winchester Safira Footballers vs Charlestown FC
Charlestown FC win
55 22 23 74.70 21.30 0.20 53.20
Winchester Safira Footballers
74.70 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Seacoast United SC vs Peabody Sporting Club
Seacoast United SC win
21 22 57 55.40 30.90 10.60 13.90
Peabody Sporting Club
27.90 total change across the 3 results
6 Sunday, November 08
BPK United vs Hudson United
Hudson United win
69 22 9 8.70 0.90 0.90 6.90
BPK United
8.70 total change across the 3 results
7 Friday, November 06
BPK United vs Charlestown FC
Charlestown FC win
52 22 26 4.40 0.90 0.90 2.60
BPK United
4.40 total change across the 3 results