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The most important remaining game right now is Criciuma Boston vs Stellar FC on Wednesday, November 04. Its match score is 130.10, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Stellar FC win
54.50 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Wednesday, November 04
Criciuma Boston vs Stellar FC
Stellar FC win
43 22 35 130.10 51.10 24.50 54.50
Criciuma Boston
83.40 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Stellar FC vs Framingham Persepolis
Stellar FC win
32 22 46 98.10 51.50 10.00 36.60
Framingham Persepolis
55.50 total change across the 3 results
3 Thursday, November 05
Kel Kau Masters vs Framingham Persepolis
Framingham Persepolis win
41 22 37 77.20 33.40 4.10 39.70
Framingham Persepolis
48.60 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, September 20
Stellar FC vs Kel Kau Masters
Stellar FC win
30 22 48 69.70 42.70 3.90 23.10
Stellar FC
38.40 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Kel Kau Masters vs Fernandes FC 40
Kel Kau Masters win
39 22 39 67.30 32.90 2.70 31.70
Fernandes FC 40
42.10 total change across the 3 results
6 Sunday, November 08
F C Bayern vs Criciuma Boston
Criciuma Boston win
55 22 23 53.90 13.50 4.50 35.90
Criciuma Boston
53.90 total change across the 3 results
7 Thursday, November 12
Fernandes FC 40 vs FFM United
Fernandes FC 40 win
37 22 41 40.40 21.40 3.30 15.70
Fernandes FC 40
38.10 total change across the 3 results
8 Sunday, November 08
FFM United vs Albania United Veterans
FFM United win
20 22 58 1.20 0.50 0.40 0.30
FFM United
1.20 total change across the 3 results