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The most important remaining game right now is Vineyard FC vs Milton International on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 90.70, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Vineyard FC win
47.00 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Vineyard FC vs Milton International
Vineyard FC win
35 22 43 90.70 47.00 6.60 37.10
Vineyard FC
90.70 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
United FC vs Celtic Masters
Celtic Masters win
48 22 30 80.70 25.30 9.00 46.40
Celtic Masters
80.70 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Ashland FC vs Taunton Eagles Soccer Club
Taunton Eagles Soccer Club win
46 22 32 59.00 14.20 14.20 30.60
Taunton Eagles Soccer Club
59.00 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Natick Rovers FC vs Newton Brigada
Natick Rovers FC win
49 22 29 15.60 5.60 5.00 5.00
Newton Brigada
15.60 total change across the 3 results