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Over 40 Division 3 North Importance

Fall 2026 leverage table for every remaining game in this flight.

The most important remaining game right now is DEA vs Os Amigos FC on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 152.20, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
DEA win
70.10 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
DEA vs Os Amigos FC
DEA win
34 22 44 152.20 70.10 37.80 44.30
DEA
90.60 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Hurricane SC vs Boston White Eagles
Boston White Eagles win
45 22 33 109.30 41.10 16.70 51.50
Boston White Eagles
80.80 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Arlington Pond Dawgz vs Lexington Bald Eagles O40
Lexington Bald Eagles O40 win
50 22 28 103.40 28.70 23.00 51.70
Lexington Bald Eagles O40
64.20 total change across the 3 results
4 Saturday, November 07
Hurricane SC vs Lexington Bald Eagles O40
Lexington Bald Eagles O40 win
46 22 32 102.90 37.40 19.90 45.60
Lexington Bald Eagles O40
74.90 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, October 11
Os Amigos FC vs Hurricane SC
Hurricane SC win
44 22 34 72.20 27.20 10.80 34.20
Os Amigos FC
48.50 total change across the 3 results
6 Sunday, November 08
Windham vs Granite Coast F.C.
Granite Coast F.C. win
44 22 34 47.10 17.00 4.60 25.50
Windham
47.10 total change across the 3 results