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The most important remaining game right now is Cabo Verde FC vs Hopkinton Hotspur on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 88.80, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Hopkinton Hotspur win
48.40 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Cabo Verde FC vs Hopkinton Hotspur
Hopkinton Hotspur win
54 22 24 88.80 20.60 19.80 48.40
Cabo Verde FC
57.80 total change across the 3 results
2 Friday, November 06
Crafty Veterans vs Irish Village Green
Crafty Veterans win
31 22 47 86.00 47.20 14.90 23.90
Irish Village Green
44.90 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Crafty Veterans vs FIMA FC
FIMA FC win
31 22 47 82.80 31.10 19.50 32.20
FIMA FC
58.80 total change across the 3 results
4 Saturday, November 07
Medfield FC vs Hopkinton Hotspur
Medfield FC win
26 22 52 79.30 44.30 17.50 17.50
Hopkinton Hotspur
53.50 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Medfield FC vs Peru Sports FC
Medfield FC win
33 22 45 42.00 15.80 12.00 14.20
Peru Sports FC
21.40 total change across the 3 results
6 Sunday, November 08
Great Woods FC vs Irish Village Green
Great Woods FC win
25 22 53 40.20 22.70 3.20 14.30
Irish Village Green
40.20 total change across the 3 results