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The most important remaining game right now is FC Littleton vs Nashoba Masters on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 268.30, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
FC Littleton win
131.70 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
FC Littleton vs Nashoba Masters
FC Littleton win
35 22 43 268.30 131.70 68.30 68.30
Nashoba Masters
134.20 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Nashua Absolute vs Bristol FC
Nashua Absolute win
24 22 54 157.10 79.40 29.30 48.40
Bristol FC
114.20 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Wen Ham United FC vs Medford United
Wen Ham United FC win
27 22 51 81.90 52.90 0.90 28.10
Wen Ham United FC
81.90 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
FC Old Skool vs New England International
FC Old Skool win
30 22 48 16.60 9.40 3.60 3.60
FC Old Skool
16.60 total change across the 3 results