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The most important remaining game right now is MVFC vs Hampstead Hurricanes on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 104.90, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Hampstead Hurricanes win
47.90 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
MVFC vs Hampstead Hurricanes
Hampstead Hurricanes win
40 22 38 104.90 32.80 24.20 47.90
MVFC
70.90 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Rebels vs FC Newburyport Brew
FC Newburyport Brew win
50 22 28 102.80 22.90 22.90 57.00
FC Newburyport Brew
102.80 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Otpisani FC vs North Reading FC
North Reading FC win
51 22 27 81.00 26.50 23.80 30.70
Otpisani FC
81.00 total change across the 3 results