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The most important remaining game right now is Milton FC vs Irish Village White on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 139.30, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Irish Village White win
60.70 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Milton FC vs Irish Village White
Irish Village White win
38 22 40 139.30 39.30 39.30 60.70
Irish Village White
139.30 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
FC Franklin II vs Canary Square Veterans
FC Franklin II win
44 22 34 114.80 44.80 35.00 35.00
FC Franklin II
57.70 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Medway vs Post-game Nomads
Medway win
30 22 48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Medway
0.00 total change across the 3 results