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The most important remaining game right now is NH Freedom vs Shrewsbury Wanderers on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 193.30, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
NH Freedom win
89.10 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
NH Freedom vs Shrewsbury Wanderers
NH Freedom win
37 22 41 193.30 89.10 18.30 85.90
Shrewsbury Wanderers
110.90 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 15
FC Boxford vs Danvers - True Soccer FC
Danvers - True Soccer FC win
37 22 41 117.90 44.70 25.20 48.00
Danvers - True Soccer FC
62.60 total change across the 3 results
3 Saturday, November 14
DEA vs NH Freedom
DEA win
34 22 44 89.90 44.80 14.00 31.10
NH Freedom
46.20 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Danvers - True Soccer FC vs Marblehead
Danvers - True Soccer FC win
37 22 41 74.50 37.40 8.70 28.40
Danvers - True Soccer FC
44.10 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 01
DEA vs Danvers - True Soccer FC
Danvers - True Soccer FC win
45 22 33 72.30 28.60 9.70 34.00
Danvers - True Soccer FC
39.20 total change across the 3 results
6 Sunday, November 08
Nashoba vs FC Boxford
Nashoba win
30 22 48 40.90 23.10 3.20 14.60
FC Boxford
40.90 total change across the 3 results
7 Sunday, November 08
Stoneham Spartans Over 48 vs DEA
DEA win
56 22 22 33.90 7.20 4.30 22.40
DEA
33.90 total change across the 3 results
8 Sunday, November 15
Nashoba vs Marblehead
Nashoba win
27 22 51 31.00 14.20 7.20 9.60
Marblehead
31.00 total change across the 3 results