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The most important remaining game right now is Malden Everett Veterans vs FC Belmont on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 175.60, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
FC Belmont win
108.20 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Malden Everett Veterans vs FC Belmont
FC Belmont win
55 22 23 175.60 33.70 33.70 108.20
FC Belmont
123.60 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Old School Soccer Club vs Nashua Absolute II
Nashua Absolute II win
40 22 38 70.50 24.70 12.20 33.60
Nashua Absolute II
38.50 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Harvard Blues FC vs Windham 50s
Harvard Blues FC win
18 22 60 35.70 25.30 5.20 5.20
Harvard Blues FC
35.70 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Pepperell Red Bulls vs Andover Gold
Andover Gold win
36 22 42 33.00 10.10 10.10 12.80
Andover Gold
33.00 total change across the 3 results