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The most important remaining game right now is West Roxbury United vs Dover Sherborn Hop Hunters on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 68.20, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
West Roxbury United win
40.60 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
West Roxbury United vs Dover Sherborn Hop Hunters
West Roxbury United win
24 22 54 68.20 40.60 13.80 13.80
West Roxbury United
68.20 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Neponset Old Boys vs Needham FC
Draw
55 22 23 39.30 11.70 13.80 13.80
Needham FC
39.30 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Charlestown FC o48 vs Peru Sports FC Masters
Charlestown FC o48 win
58 22 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charlestown FC o48
0.00 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
NCLS Evergreen vs Raynham Crue
NCLS Evergreen win
53 22 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
NCLS Evergreen
0.00 total change across the 3 results