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The most important remaining game right now is Canary Square 50 vs North Reading O48 on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 127.80, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Canary Square 50 win
72.60 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Canary Square 50 vs North Reading O48
Canary Square 50 win
26 22 52 127.80 72.60 27.60 27.60
Canary Square 50
63.90 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Andover United vs Wen Ham United
Wen Ham United win
52 22 26 98.60 22.60 22.60 53.40
Andover United
49.30 total change across the 3 results
3 Thursday, November 05
Canary Square 50 vs Wen Ham United
Canary Square 50 win
27 22 51 61.70 27.50 14.30 19.90
Canary Square 50
43.40 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, September 27
Andover United vs Masco
Andover United win
40 22 38 24.50 11.30 2.70 10.50
Andover United
24.50 total change across the 3 results