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The most important remaining game right now is Neponset Older Boys vs Fernandes O55++ on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 94.20, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Neponset Older Boys win
48.80 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Neponset Older Boys vs Fernandes O55++
Neponset Older Boys win
35 22 43 94.20 48.80 12.00 33.40
Fernandes O55++
94.20 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
FC Franklin Seniors vs AFC Medfield
FC Franklin Seniors win
17 22 61 69.60 48.80 3.90 16.90
FC Franklin Seniors
69.60 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Warthog Legends vs FIMA O55
Warthog Legends win
34 22 44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Warthog Legends
0.00 total change across the 3 results