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The most important remaining game right now is Medway vs Boston Villa FC on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 110.60, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Medway win
57.40 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Medway vs Boston Villa FC
Medway win
32 22 46 110.60 57.40 21.70 31.50
Boston Villa FC
58.10 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, September 27
Boston Villa FC vs Warthog Wonders
Warthog Wonders win
51 22 27 87.60 24.90 20.70 42.00
Boston Villa FC
57.30 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Warthog Wonders vs Arlington PondDawgz 62
Warthog Wonders win
35 22 43 24.50 11.70 6.40 6.40
Warthog Wonders
24.50 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Lynnfield F.C. Olympians vs Danvers EFC
Lynnfield F.C. Olympians win
20 22 58 5.10 3.30 0.90 0.90
Danvers EFC
5.10 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Hopkinton OF vs Nashoba Apple Corps
Hopkinton OF win
24 22 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hopkinton OF
0.00 total change across the 3 results