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The most important remaining game right now is New England United FC vs Everett Phoenix on Friday, November 06. Its match score is 17.80, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
New England United FC win
7.40 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Friday, November 06
New England United FC vs Everett Phoenix
New England United FC win
41 22 37 17.80 7.40 5.20 5.20
New England United FC
8.90 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Everett Phoenix vs Lexington o68
Lexington o68 win
61 22 17 16.30 2.60 2.60 11.10
Everett Phoenix
16.30 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Wanderers vs New England United FC
New England United FC win
47 22 31 10.40 2.60 2.60 5.20
New England United FC
10.40 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Lynnfield F.C. Pioneers vs The Warthogs
Lynnfield F.C. Pioneers win
24 22 54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lynnfield F.C. Pioneers
0.00 total change across the 3 results
5 Sunday, November 08
Sudbury FC Platinum vs Exeter Seadogs
Sudbury FC Platinum win
40 22 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sudbury FC Platinum
0.00 total change across the 3 results