Home Back to Flight

The most important remaining game right now is Irish Village vs Lowell United on Sunday, November 08. Its match score is 243.70, which means the three possible results in this game create more combined change for those two teams' promotion and relegation chances than any other matchup left.

Formula
Three-result swing for the two teams in the match
Measured only from the two teams playing in that match.
Simulation Runs
2000
Used for each baseline and single-outcome branch.
Top Outcome Branch
Irish Village win
134.90 change for the two teams

Exact formula used on this page:

Match score = home-win change + draw change + away-win change, where each change = promotion change for both teams + relegation change for both teams.

For each remaining game, force a home win, a draw, and an away win. For each of those three results, add up how much the two teams in that match would change in promotion chance and relegation chance. Then add those three result totals together.

Remaining Game Table

`Match score` is the headline ranking. The three branch columns show how much the two teams in that match would change if the home team wins, if it ends in a draw, or if the away team wins.

# Date Matchup Home Win% Draw% Away Win% Match Score If Home Wins If Draw If Away Wins Most Affected Team
1 Sunday, November 08
Irish Village vs Lowell United
Irish Village win
22 22 56 243.70 134.90 53.10 55.70
Irish Village
121.90 total change across the 3 results
2 Sunday, November 08
Ferruginha FC vs Lexington Eagles FC
Lexington Eagles FC win
52 22 26 58.50 11.90 11.90 34.70
Lexington Eagles FC
30.00 total change across the 3 results
3 Sunday, November 08
Harvard vs Concord United
Harvard win
13 22 65 54.40 33.00 9.70 11.70
Concord United
54.40 total change across the 3 results
4 Sunday, November 08
Cantona vs Massachusetts United
Cantona win
28 22 50 4.30 2.70 0.80 0.80
Cantona
4.30 total change across the 3 results