Estimating Mortality

According to Edward N. Rappaport (2016), "When approximating the loss of life, [the US government] characterizes the loss as a ‘direct’ death; that is, we attribute the fatality to a physical manifestation of the storm. The most common examples of direct deaths are drowning in storm surge, storm-driven waves, rip currents, or freshwater flood from rain. They also include physical trauma incurred from windborne debris or structural failure induced by wind (tornadic and otherwise). The official death toll for maria was 64.1

TIMELINE:2

September 20, 2017:

Hurricane Maria makes landfall with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour. The storm knocks out power to the entire island.

September 27, 2017:

The Puerto Rican government announces a that 16 people died in the storm.

October 3, 2017:

Governor Roselló issues an update to the island’s official death toll increasing it to 34 people.

October 2017:

The Puerto Rican government updates the official death toll (direct deaths) to 64 people.

May 2018:

A pre-release version of Kishore N (2018)’s paper is published in the New England Journal of Medicine. It reveals that according to their study, the hurricane’s mortality rate should be 4,625 (95% CI, 793 to 8498).

May-June 2018:

Kishore N (2018) receives widespread coverage and makes headlines such as the following:

All these articles reported and compared the mortality estimates of 64 and 4,625 without noting that the two numbers are based of different definitions. The official mortality is based of direct deaths. Kishore N (2018)’s estimates are based of excess mortality.

August 2018:

George Washington University (2018) publishes a study reporting an excess mortality of 2975

October 2018:

Kane (2018) notes the flawed mortality data underlying in Kishore N (2018).

Edward N. Rappaport, B. Wayne Blanchard. 2016. “Fatalities in the United States Indirectly Associated with Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00042.1.
George Washington University, in collaboration with the University of Puerto Rico Graduate School of Puerto Rico. 2018. “Ascertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane Maria NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 10 in Puerto Rico.” A Project Report for the Governor of Puerto Rico.
Kane, D. 2018. “Correspondence to Mortality in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria.” N Engl J Med. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc1810872.
Kishore N, Mahmud A, Marqués D. 2018. “Mortality in Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria.” N Engl J Med. https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMsa1803972.

  1. Pr, T. (2017, December 9). Aumentan a 64 MUERTES CERTIFICADAS Por maría. Telemundo Puerto Rico. https://www.telemundopr.com/noticias/puerto-rico/aumentan-a-64-las-muertes-por-el-huracan-maria/10690/. ↩︎

  2. Meyer, R. (2017, October 4). What’s happening with the relief effort in Puerto Rico? The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/what-happened-in-puerto-rico-a-timeline-of-hurricane-maria/541956/.↩︎

  3. Fink, S. (2018, May 29). Puerto Rico’s Hurricane MARIA death toll could Exceed 4,000, new study estimates. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/29/us/puerto-rico-deaths-hurricane.html.↩︎

  4. Campo-Flores, A. (2018, May 29). New study Puts Hurricane MARIA death toll in Puerto Rico At 4,600. The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/death-toll-from-hurricane-maria-may-exceed-4-600-in-puerto-rico-study-says-1527610573.↩︎

  5. Arelis Hernández, L. M. G. (2018, June 4). Harvard study ESTIMATES thousands died in Puerto RICO because of Hurricane Maria. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/harvard-study-estimates-thousands-died-in-puerto-rico-due-to-hurricane-maria/2018/05/29/1a82503a-6070-11e8-a4a4-c070ef53f315_story.html.↩︎

References